April is here—and reefer rates are about to heat up. Produce season is starting. Here’s what to expect month by month, and which regions to watch.
Written By Luke Prothero of Greenscreens.ai.
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A Month-by-Month Look at Seasonality
Throughout the calendar year, agricultural output drives demand for freight, especially refrigerated freight.
We can use historical reefer pricing data to track produce seasons across the country and anticipate capacity crunches ahead of time.
True “produce season” in the continental United States lasts from about April to October, with Sun Belt markets dominating April through June and Midwestern markets dominating July through October.
February and March are characterized by low seasonality (February has the lowest seasonality of all 12 months).
- The “hottest” markets in both months are flatbed, whereas the rest of the year is dominated by reefer. This likely has more to do with the relative lack of seasonal demand for reefer than it does an increase in demand for flatbed freight in these months.
April and May produce season in Florida and southern Georgia results in an especially severe rate increase for outbound reefers.
- The crops that drive most of this seasonality are watermelons, peaches, and blueberries.
- May has the highest seasonality of all 12 months.
July and August are dominated by midwestern markets in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa.
- The primary driver is the signature crop of this region – corn. Other crops with a significant summer harvest in the Midwest include tomatoes, beans, peppers, onions, melons, and berries.
September and October are harvest season for much of the country.
- But we see especially high seasonality in Northwest and Upper Interior markets such as Eastern Washington (driven by apples as well as pears, pumpkins, cabbage, squash, hazelnuts, and hops) and Idaho (potatoes).
November is post-harvest season for most of the country, but Arizona experiences significant seasonality due primarily to the lettuce crop.
- The Yuma region, in particular, is known as the “Winter Lettuce Capital of the World”.
December and January do experience “hot” markets as holiday demand drives prices up every year, however, there are few clear patterns that indicate particular price sensitivity in certain regions or for specific transport types.
- In all likelihood, smaller markets (such as the North Dakota markets or Grand Junction, CO) and markets on peninsulas (such as Florida or Maine), which are more capacity-constrained and deadhead-prone due to limited inbound and outbound freight balance, tend to be more price-sensitive.
Seasonality by Market: Where to Watch
Greenscreens’ animation of top seasonal markets shows how the freight map shifts by month:
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